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| Not withstanding a rough start.... |
Look, it is difficult to have a worse recent track record than EMU has. They haven't had a winning season since 1995 and have only won 6 games once since then. Over the last 4 years they are 9-41. Now, they are 3-1 this year and would appear to be as good as they have been in recent years. That is wins over Wyoming and Charlotte and Mississippi Valley State and a loss to Missouri.
They have 18, which is hardly any. Team is stocked with a lot of FR and SO from the Creighton rebuilding project.
Who are their statistical leaders?
Jaylen Pickett is #18 in INT.
Blake Banham is #15 in Kickoff returns
Austin Barnes is #7 in punting
Ian Eriksen is #17 in rushing TDs
What is their turnover ratio?
They are +2 for the year. They have thrown 8 INT and recovered 7 fumbles.
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| They do seem to be starting to develop a culture. |
Well, we don't know whether we are getting Todd Porter or Brogan Roback. Porter is #6 in the MAC in passing efficiency, with 60% completions and 12.6 yards per completion. However, he is very mistake prone, with 7 TD and 8 INT. Brogan Roback, who was suspended, has played in only 1 game this year, though he did rally the team against Wyoming.
What is their scoring and yards per play?
Their 36 points a game and 5.9 yards per play are in the middle of the NCAA pack, both in the top 60.
Can they run the ball?
They aren't great. They average 4.4 yards per carry, which is 8th in the MAC.
Do they pass the ball?
As noted, they are in the middle of the MAC in pass efficiency, so they are average passing. Only one team has thrown more picks than EMU....that's the team EMU plays Saturday.
How is their run/pass balance?
They run on 55% of their plays, which is a little above average.
Do they convert on 3rd Down?
Their scoring is better than their marginal statistics, so usually there is an explanation. They are actually #2 in the MAC on 3rd down. (BG, last)
Do they score in the red zone?
They are very good in the red zone at 5.7 points per trip. They have failed to score only 1 time.
Did they protect the quarterback?
Yes, they have given up only 4 sacks on 138 attempts, which is 2.9%.
Defense:
Topline: Scoring and yards per play.
They are 6th in the MAC in points allowed but 4th in yards per play allowed.
Do they defend the run effectively?
They are very, very good. They allow 2.9 yards per rush, which is tied for the MAC lead. This is a test for BG's o-line which is getting healthier. BG's rush offense is vital to any chance of moving the ball.
Can they be passed on?
They are 6th in the MAC in pass defense efficiency. They allow 58% completion at 12.4 yards per completion, the second of which is high. Also, 8 TD over 3 INT.
Do they get off the field on 3rd down?
They are 7th in the MAC, so pretty average.
Do they defend in the red zone?
They are very good, allowing only 4.5 points per trip.
Do they pressure the QB?
They are OK, with 9 sacks on 160 attempts and 5.6% of total passing attempts.
Special Teams:
Punting?
They are really good. They are #4 in net punting, with 2nd in outgoing yards but give up 4 yards per return. No blocks.
Punt Return?
They are 8th at 5 yards per return.
Placekicking?
He's 6/8 with a long of 46. He's pretty good.
Kickoff?
Opponents start on the 25, which is pretty much par for their course.
Kickoff Return?
They are really good. 2nd in the MAC in yards per return and start on the 31 on average.
Miscellaneous: Overall atmospherics and intangibles.
So, the main dynamic in this game is that EMU is 3-1 and starting to wonder if they might have turned the corner and they are playing the defending champs who are sucking ass right now. This game is huge for EMU--and even huger for BG. I think everyone at BG fears whether the season can be put back together anyway, and the job would only get worse with a loss to EMU. A lot worse.
It is homecoming. Not sure whose favor that works in.
Both teams have mysteries at starting QB.
Going to be interesting.
Bowling Green is favored by 2.5, which is a bit of a surprise to me.
Their 36 points a game and 5.9 yards per play are in the middle of the NCAA pack, both in the top 60.
Can they run the ball?
Do they pass the ball?
As noted, they are in the middle of the MAC in pass efficiency, so they are average passing. Only one team has thrown more picks than EMU....that's the team EMU plays Saturday.
How is their run/pass balance?
They run on 55% of their plays, which is a little above average.
Do they convert on 3rd Down?
Their scoring is better than their marginal statistics, so usually there is an explanation. They are actually #2 in the MAC on 3rd down. (BG, last)
Do they score in the red zone?
They are very good in the red zone at 5.7 points per trip. They have failed to score only 1 time.
Yes, they have given up only 4 sacks on 138 attempts, which is 2.9%.
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| Other Ypsilanti notes...this s their water tower |
Topline: Scoring and yards per play.
They are very, very good. They allow 2.9 yards per rush, which is tied for the MAC lead. This is a test for BG's o-line which is getting healthier. BG's rush offense is vital to any chance of moving the ball.
Can they be passed on?
They are 6th in the MAC in pass defense efficiency. They allow 58% completion at 12.4 yards per completion, the second of which is high. Also, 8 TD over 3 INT.
Do they defend in the red zone?
They are very good, allowing only 4.5 points per trip.
Do they pressure the QB?
They are OK, with 9 sacks on 160 attempts and 5.6% of total passing attempts.
Special Teams:
Punting?
They are really good. They are #4 in net punting, with 2nd in outgoing yards but give up 4 yards per return. No blocks.
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| This is Demetrio Yspilantis, the hero of the Greek War of Independence. |
They are 8th at 5 yards per return.
Placekicking?
He's 6/8 with a long of 46. He's pretty good.
Opponents start on the 25, which is pretty much par for their course.
Kickoff Return?
They are really good. 2nd in the MAC in yards per return and start on the 31 on average.
So, the main dynamic in this game is that EMU is 3-1 and starting to wonder if they might have turned the corner and they are playing the defending champs who are sucking ass right now. This game is huge for EMU--and even huger for BG. I think everyone at BG fears whether the season can be put back together anyway, and the job would only get worse with a loss to EMU. A lot worse.
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| This is Sidetrack in Ypsi. Best hamburger ever. |
Both teams have mysteries at starting QB.
Going to be interesting.
Bowling Green is favored by 2.5, which is a bit of a surprise to me.
Send UT a pic of that water tower, they'll be compelled to build something even more obscene.
ReplyDeleteThe first few games have me on-edge as most of us are. We are wondering how bad this could get, if it is really due to talent loss, if much of that blame falls on Baber's, if the new staff is weak, etc.
Even if EMU is on the rise this still has to be seen as a benchmark game for the rest of the season. A low-end MAC team regardless of improvement, should be one the Falcons can beat. If they can't, it becomes a legitimate question as to if they will win another game this season.
We look back on Clawson and there were more than a few calling for his head in his first two and three years. It was deemed unfair at the time and later due to the factual truth that Greg Brandon-regardless of his "winning" record-screwed the program into the ground. He built from scratch and left with a rock solid program.
I won't side-track into a debate into what Baber's did or didn't do to the program, rather I will say that he was another "winning" coach who might have left the program with a lot of work to do. So to judge Jinks at this point, however horrific the first three games, isn't yet fair.
That said, I also won't preclude the question needing to be asked at some point as to if some of the current implosion is attributable to some or all of the staff. Though everybody swore Baber's shouldn't be judged during his first year due to having a new "system" and lots of talent graduating, which was not true or fair.