One thing that I don't think most Falcon fans have their arms around is how tough the schedule is this season. Yes, I know that was what everyone said last year, too. And there is at least an FCS team on this year....though the North Dakota Fighting Hawks are the #21 ranked FCS team and only one P5 team.
A couple things that might not have been thought of...YES, there is only one P5 team on the schedule....but that Middle Tennesee game is going to be tougher than anyone thinks.
Second, BG's MAC road games are @Ohio, @UT, @NIU, and @Akron. BG has made its bones being a very good road team over the past few years, but that's going to put this to the test this season. Basically, if you're going to win the East with 2 losses, you need to win no fewer than 2 of those 4 games. And, unless it is going to be outright with 2 losses, the Akron and OU games are key.
So, let's take a look at a few scenarios for the season.
For example, here is a very plausible scenario where BG is 7-5 and 5-3. As mentioned, Middle Tennessee could beat us and Memphis lost a lot and has a new coach (just like us), so maybe those flip but the net is the same and this is certainly more likely. At 5-3 with a loss to OU, it' a crap shoot if that's good enough to win the East.
9/3/2016 @Ohio State LOSS
9/10/2016 North Dakota WIN
9/17/2016 Middle Tennessee WIN
9/24/2016 @Memphis LOSS
10/1/2016 Eastern Michigan WIN
10/8/2016 @Ohio LOSS
10/15/2016 @Toledo LOSS
10/22/2016 * Miami WIN
11/1/2016 @Northern Illinois LOSS
11/9/2016 @Akron WIN
11/15/2016 * Kent State WIN
11/25/2016 * Buffalo WIN
OK, for you optimists, here's a scenario if we really have things rolling. Here we sweep Middle Tennessee and Memphis, beat OU and split the cross-over West games (I have chosen Toledo, but probably more likely to happen @NIU)...that's a 10-2 season with a 7-1 MAC schedule. This is an extreme I don't see happening.
9/3/2016 @Ohio State LOSS
9/10/2016 North Dakota WIN
9/17/2016 Middle Tennessee WIN
9/24/2016 @Memphis WIN
10/1/2016 Eastern Michigan WIN
10/8/2016 @Ohio WIN
10/15/2016 @Toledo WIN
10/22/2016 * Miami WIN
11/1/2016 @Northern Illinois LOSS
11/9/2016 @Akron WIN
11/15/2016 * Kent State WIN
11/25/2016 * Buffalo WIN
Likewise, here is a disaster-based scenario...5-7 and 4-4. If you really want disaster, figure Miami or Buffalo is a surprise MAC teams and upsets us.
9/3/2016 @Ohio State LOSS
9/10/2016 North Dakota WIN
9/17/2016 Middle Tennessee LOSS
9/24/2016 @Memphis LOSS
10/1/2016 Eastern Michigan WIN
10/8/2016 @Ohio LOSS
10/15/2016 @Toledo LOSS
10/22/2016 * Miami WIN
11/1/2016 @Northern Illinois LOSS
11/9/2016 @Akron LOSS
11/15/2016 * Kent State WIN
11/25/2016 * Buffalo WIN
The most like path to an East title probably looks like this...and crazy as it is, it seems like sweeping the East again is the most likely answer. Is that likely to happen again? Look, I know, right? But sitting here today, its possible. The one thing BG has been in the East has been upset proof...we just haven't lost games we should win...but will that happen this year? Again, Miami and Buffalo lurk as teams I think are on upward trajectories.
Here we have 8-4 and 6-2. You could lose Middle Tennessee and still finish 7-5 and 6-2.
9/3/2016 @Ohio State LOSS
9/10/2016 North Dakota WIN
9/17/2016 Middle Tennessee WIN
9/24/2016 @Memphis LOSS
10/1/2016 Eastern Michigan WIN
10/8/2016 @Ohio WIN
10/15/2016 @Toledo LOSS
10/22/2016 * Miami WIN
11/1/2016 @Northern Illinois LOSS
11/9/2016 @Akron WIN
11/15/2016 * Kent State WIN
11/25/2016 * Buffalo WIN
If you like Phil Steele, based on the Power Poll BG goes 7-5 and 6-2.
9/3/2016 @Ohio State LOSS
9/10/2016 North Dakota WIN
9/17/2016 Middle Tennessee LOSS
9/24/2016 @Memphis LOSS
10/1/2016 Eastern Michigan WIN
10/8/2016 @Ohio WIN
10/15/2016 @Toledo LOSS
10/22/2016 * Miami WIN
11/1/2016 @Northern Illinois LOSS
11/9/2016 @Akron WIN
11/15/2016 * Kent State WIN
11/25/2016 * Buffalo WIN
So, in the end, I'd say that 8 wins is the high point for BG and 5 wins would be the low point.
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