So here's a look at BG Men's basketball on a game by game basis. Overall, I think this is going to be a rough season. The predictions below have us going 10-21 and 4-14 in the MAC.
Now, a couple things. First is that the non-conference schedule is very, very easy. UC is really the only strongly competitive team we play and we also play 2 non-DI games.
With that in mind, I have them losing to Youngstown State (neutral), @FGCU, Drake, @SE Missouri, @Detroit and @Wright State. Honestly, any of those is winnable as well. Just don't like shaky teams on the road. We could also easily lose to Cleveland State. I have us 6-7 in non-conference and you could get to 8-5 reasonably, especially if the team is playing better (but not that much better) than we expect.
In the MAC, just going to be really tough. I have BG beating Miami, @EMU, Ohio and Ball State, and losing the rest. That includes home losses to Akron, Kent, CMU, UT, WMU, and Buffalo. BG has a tough cross-over, with 2 games against WMU and CMU, two of the top teams in the West.
Anyway, that's how I think it looks. If the team can stay healthy and get unexpected early contributions from some guys a slightly higher upside is available due to a weak non-conference schedule.
NEW ORLEANS W
BG beat them by 31 a couple years ago, and while they are better than they were then, they are still a mid-range team in the Southland conference (29th ranked of 33).
CINCINNATI L
An early test for the Falcons, UC was a tourney team last year (with a win) and should be again this year and are the clear favorites to win this game. Coach Mick Cronin returns to the bench healthy.
VS NORTH DAKOTA W
This a neutral court game. BG and NoDak have played twice recently, both holding serve on home court. They won only 8 games last year and lost 3 guys from that team. Picked to finish 10th in the Big Sky, BG should win this one.
VS YOUNGSTOWN STATE L
The Penguins are picked to finish 8th in the 9-team Horizon and lost 4 starters since last year. They have a dominant big man, however, that BG will be hard pressed to check and I think the Penguins win this one.
AT FGCU L
Good-bye Dunk City. These guys are now picked to finish 3rd in the Atlantic Sun, the 30th ranked conference. It is a home game for them, but they have a bunch of new guys. This is a winnable game for the Falcons, but I think it tips to FGCU as a road game.
URBANA W
The Blue Knights are DII and were 6-23 last year.
UMBC W
They were one of the worst teams in D1 last year. They have four guys back but are still only picked for 7th in the 9-team American East. BG should win this one.
DRAKE L
BG did win at Drake last year in the opener, in the first clue that BG had something different going. Drake finished 7th in the MVC and is picked to finish 8th this year. Next to UC, this will be the 2nd toughest team BG will have played at this point in the season. Drake features two international seven-footers, hard to know how that works out but they are very big and might be tough for BG.
AT SOUTHEAST MISSOURI L
Winning on the road is something I would worry about with this team. BG beat them by 8 last year at the Stroh. Ricky Ray is a new coach here and while they are not expected to content in the OVC West, I think they will be good enough to beat BG on their home floor.
AT DETROIT L
BG won a hugely thrilling buzzer beater last year at Calihan Hall. So, BG lost a lot and UD lost Juwan Howard Jr., their leading player. They are picked to finish 3rd in the Horizon. They are also expected to have post issues. This is one BG could win, but I'm picking UD on home floor.
AT WRIGHT STATE L
BG has played Wright State the last 3 seasons, with the home team winning every time. WSU lost their last 10 games to end the season with star player JT Yoho injured. BG beat them by 15 at the Stroh with Yoho DNP. They are typically pretty good and I think they will be getting better.
AT CLEVELAND STATE W
CSU lost its two key players from last year to the graduate transfer rule (to Louisvile and Wichita State). I feel like BG wins at least one of the 4 road games in this streak, and it is going to be this one. (Next most likely is UD).
OAKLAND CITY W
No...not THAT Oakland. This one is a Non D1 team from Indiana and BG will win this one.
MIAMI W
CENTRAL MICHIGAN L
AT OHIO L
AT EASTERN MICHIGAN W
TOLEDO L
KENT STATE L
AT WESTERN MICHIGAN L
AT CENTRAL MICHIGAN L
BALL STATE W
AT MIAMI L
AKRON L
WESTERN MICHIGAN L
AT NORTHERN ILLINOIS L
AT BUFFALO L
OHIO W
AT AKRON L
AT KENT STATE L
BUFFALO (SENIOR NIGHT) L
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