My shot at MBB permutations...Work to be done for BG

WITH TWO GAMES LEFT: Divisional Championships, Byes, First Round Hosts, etc. All up for grabs! #MACtion #MACMadness pic.twitter.com/kQxkv8Op1d
— Jeremy Guy (@JGuyMAC) March 1, 2015

So, first a disclaimer.  I'm not going to do any permutations about winning the East.  I don't care about winning the East, it doesn't mean anything, and Dave Hackenberg is right, we should just get rid of the divisions for anything except football.  Essentially, they don't exist for basketball now.

Ok, one more disclaimer.  Let me know if I bolloxed this up.  It is possible.

This is relatively complicated because there are really 3 goals in play for BG:

• Winning the regular season championship.
• Winning a top two bye.
• Winning a top four bye.

As you can see, BG is tied with CMU and UT.  Two important things about that...first, BG wins the tiebreaker vs. CMU and not against UT, head to head.  Second, those teams play on Tuesday and therefore they cannot both win out.

Let's start thinking big.  If BG wins both games coming home, they are assured of a semi-final bye. Further, the only way two wins would not result in a MAC regular season title would be if UT won both of its games.  BG could win outright at 13 wins.

Now, let's starting thinking about the 1-1 scenarios, starting with a Kent win and a Buffalo loss.  At 12 wins, BG would be assured of a top four bye.

BG would win the regular season if it ended up in a two-way tie only with CMU, meaning UT would have to lose out and Buffalo would have to lose to OU.  The possibility does not exist for BG to have an outright title at 12 wins.

Now, the possibility exists of a 4-way tie at that point between BG, UT, CMU and Buffalo which yields the following record among the tied teams.

BG  1-3
UT 3-1 or 2-2
CMU 4-1 or 3-2
Buffalo  2-3

So a tiebreaker like that puts BG in 4th, regardless of what happens with UT and CMU.

It gets a lot more complicated with a 3-way tie.  For example, let's say Buffalo lost to OU, leaving you this:

BG 1-1
UT 2-1 or 1-2
CMU 2-1 or 1-2

Go Cats.  So far as I can tell, this is the only "1-1 Kent win scenario with a 3-way tie" that puts BG in the top 2.

BG:  0-3
Buffalo: 2-1
UT:  2-0

BG 1/4 final bye

BG:  1-2
Buffalo:  2-2
CMU: 2-1

BG 1/4 final bye

OK, so let's think about the 1-1 scenarios where BG loses to Kent but beats Buffalo.

First, and this is the headline...BG still is assured of a top 4 bye with one win, no matter who it comes against.  There is no way for 5 teams to get 12 wins.

There is also a shot of a 4 way tie here....this time like this:

BG:  2-2
KSU: 4-1
UT:  2-3 or 1-4
CMU: 2-2 or 1-3

So in this scenario, BG ends up with a top 2 bye.

In 3-ways:

BG:  1-2
KSU: 2-1
UT: 1-2

BG 1/4 final bye

BG:  1-1
KSU: 2-1
CMU: 0-2

BG 1/4 final bye

BG:  1-1
UT:  2-1 or 1-2
CMU: 2-1 or 1-2

BG 2nd.

Finally, let's look at the sad scenario.  Let's look at 2 losses.

BG could end up with a home playoff game under that scenario.  Buffalo, Kent, UT and CMU could all finish with 12 wins, putting BG 5th with 11.

There are a myriad of possibilities because you now introduce Akron and WMU back into the equation.  Obviously, BG wants Akron out of the tie breaker and would be happy to have WMU in.

The question is, could BG get a bye under any two-loss scenario.

The answer is yes.

If they ended up in a two-way 11-win tie with CMU.  A 3-way 11-win with WMU and CMU would also get BG a bye.  There may be others.

Here's the take away.  First, let's give the boys a big and loud crowd and let's beat Kent and assure ourselves of a bye.  Against all odds, let's pull for OU to win @Buffalo...hey, look, NIU scorched CMU...but not likely.  Anyway, if that happened BG is assured of a top-2 finish.  Let's root for CMU to beat UT as well.

It is certainly getting fun.