Zipper Problems, Akron Preview

Look. Akron is the MAC standard right. It was Kent, it might someday soon be Toledo or it might be...well, who are we kidding, it isn't going to be EMU...anyway, for now, Akron is the conference's most consistent winning team.   Before last year, the had made the final of the MAC tournament for 7 straight seasons.  Any program in the MAC would have traded places with them.

And, Akron has owned BG  over the last 10 years or so in a way that I doubt any MAC team has even owned the Falcons.  The Zips have won 20 out of the 21 games between the two teams.  That's simply incredible.

It is this mountain that the Falcons stare at.  This is a good team that has completely owned the Falcons and then the game is in their arena.

So, this is a very tough test.  On the other hand, this is a new era.  Wouldn't it be cool....

The Zips are 10-5 this year.  They have played the 230th ranked schedule and BG has played the 287th.

They have two marquee wins over USC and South Carolina--both of which now have 100+ RPIs.  They have 1 non-D1 win and wins over Maryland Baltimore-County, Pine-Bluff, Western Illinois, Marshall and Coppin State...all with RPIs over 297.  They also have a less than ideal loss at home to Middle Tennessee State.  In MAC play, they smoked WMU at the JAR and then lost @UT.

They have gotten where they are without the player who has been a central part of their rotation over the last few years:  Demetrius Treadwell.  Treadwell was suspended indefinitely in mid-November and then a month later released from the squad behind reports of an assault of a female UA athlete.

So, this isn't the greatest Akron team of the last few years...yet they have owned BG and are tough to beat in the JAR.  Let the game proceed.

So, remembering that Akron has played a slightly tougher schedule than BG, let's look at what we have in stats.  As you can see, Akron is slightly better than BG on offense and the Falcons are, to date, playing more effective defense than Akron.

Let's look at the BG offense against the Akron defense.  (That chart is supposed to say AK, not KS).  And, we can see that the match up is pretty even.  BG shoots about as well as Akron allows shooting...and the rebounding profiles are similar.  BG does not get to the line very much and Akron doesn't foul much.  The biggest difference is that Akron is used to creating more turnovers than BG so that will be a key.  This end of the court will be grind and a real test.

Flipping it around,  we can see the two areas that are going to be the biggest areas where the contest will exist.  First, Akron (as usual) is used to doing pretty well getting offensive rebounds and BG is among the top 15% of the country in preventing offensive rebounds...so that's going to be a key battleground.  Also, as always, defending the shot is critical and Akron is slightly better with the shot than BG has been allowing this year.  The other areas are pretty comparable.

Individually, Akron never has guys pump up big numbers because of the depth Dambrot usually plays.  They only have one double figure scorer, who is Pat Forsythe at 10.5 PPG on 57% shooting and a team high 5.5 rebounds per game.  He's a big guy at 6'11" and a legit challenge for BG, which has no one of comparable size.

They have Deji Ibiyato scoring 9.7 PPG in 19 minutes mostly off the bench.  He's a G shooting 44% and 35% from 3FG.  He was a role player last year, but has been much more productive in only a few more minutes.

Fr Noah Robotham is a 6'1" G who is scoring 9.4 PPG and leading the team with just over 30 minutes played per game.  He is shooting 41% and 34% from 3FG.  He also leads 2.7 assists per game.  Kwan Cheathem is also scoring an inefficient 9 PPG, with 38% shooting and 35% 3FG.  That's poor shooting for a guy who is 6'9".  He's also averaging 5.7 rebounds.

The size Akron has presents some challenges to BG.  For all this, Akron is only a 1 point favorite.  This would be a huge monkey to get off the back....look forward to watching it unfold.