Getting Carded: Ball State Preview

So here come the Ball State Cardinals.  Coming out of the pre-MAC season, it was hard to see what they had.  Most of their  D1 wins were over teams with RPIs among the 30 worst in the country and there was a bad loss to IUPUI in there somewhere.  Since MAC play, however, we have seen a team that is pretty competitive.  They won @EMU (though I will content EMU's DII-laden schedule puts their gaudy record way ahead of where they should be), but then beat CMU by 18 in Muncie and lost in double OT @WMU.  They could easily be 3-0 in MAC play.

I am not too surprised.  I have liked their new coach from the beginning and I believe he will win at the MAC, especially at a school with the basketball heritage that they have at Ball State.

The upshot is that what might have appeared on the schedule as a nice chance to get a win is now turning into a dogfight.  BG played well after their last loss and I think we will play well again Saturday....and we will need to.

Taking a look at the game, as we can see, BG and Ball State are relatively comparable on offense this season, while BG has had the better of the defensive play.  Both teams are a little below average on offense and above average on defense.

When we look at the BG offense against the Ball State defense, we see that BG shoots about what Ball State allows, and the same is true of turnovers.  Both BG and Ball State are strong on the defensive boards, and that will be a big battle point.  BG does not get to the line much, and Ball State does allow a few more FTs, though neither stat really is remarkable.

Flipping it around, we see that Ball State is used to shooting better than BG is allowing, though turnovers are about the same (relatively high) and we see the same issue on the offensive boards as we saw on the chart above.  Finally, Ball State does get to the line a decent amount and BG has done a pretty good job avoiding that, so that would appear to be a decent battleground.  

Based on this, I'd say the key battlegrounds are going to be how well BG defends the shot and whether any team can generate any offensive rebounding.  Beyond that, looks like a grinder.

Zavier Turner is scoring 13 PPG to lead the team.  It is a little inefficient--he's shooting 40%--but he is also shooting 40% from 3FG, which puts a different light on it.  He also averages 4 assists a game over 3.7 turnovers.  He's a 5'9" sophomore.

Sean Sellers is their 2nd leader scorer.  He is a 6'6" sophomore and is scoring 12.6 PPG on 45% shooting and 47% 3FG shooting,

Jeremie Tyler is a 6'2" Fr G who is scoring 12 PPG on 46% and 43% shooting.  Franko House is a 6'6" SO scoring 9 PPG on 46% shooting and adding 5.6 rebounds and 2.5 assists.  Finally, Matt Kaminiecki is a 6'8" SR who is averaging over 8 rebounds per game.

You see what Whitford has done in two recruiting classes?  They are the youngest team in the MAC and the 24th youngest in D1 and they are 2-1 in conference play.  Like I said, I think Whitford is going to bring them back and the game tomorrow will be a grind.  Obviously, BG has an advantage at home, but they will need to play well or Ball State will get the win.  I do like our odds after playing so poorly Wednesday, but, again, that remains to be seen.