EMU Preview....

So here come the Eastern Michigan Eagles.  Eastern Michigan posted a gaudy pre-MAC record at 11-2....and yes, that included a win @UM.  It also include FOUR, count them FOUR non D1 wins.  That's just shameful scheduling.  Honestly, the MAC should be stepping in...no team should play more than 1 in a given season.  Anyway, beyond those four, they beat 3 teams with RPI of 327 or over.  This scheduling did not take long to rear its head in MAC play, as the Eagles went 1-3, losing at home to Ball State and @Kent and @Miami, before beating EMU NIU (ed. We regret the error) in Ypsi.  That's the nation's 291st ranked schedule NOT COUNTING the non D-1 games.  They are 2-4 on the road this year.

So, when we look at the stats, just keep in mind who they were generated against.  To be fair, BG has not played that tough a MAC schedule, but BG did win against Ball State and @Kent.  BG's only home loss was to Ferris this year and I'd expect this to be a game BG should win.

The game pits the two best defenses in the MAC.  EMU's defense is its calling card and has been.  Rob Murphy plays a stifling 2-3 zone in the Syracuse style, and they have been generating numbers.  As you can see, they have played very efficient defense.  They held Michigan to 42, but have allowed 60+ in all their MAC losses.  BG has been good on defense as well, and adjusted for schedule I think we might be as good as they are and certainly we are as good on offense or even better.

The forte of the EMU defense has been to be difficult to shoot against.  They are that again.  BG is going to need to figure out ways to make shots against a very difficult defense.  They also force turnovers--you can still be very active in a 2-3 zone, it does not have to be passive.  They also rarely send teams to the line.  Beyond all the cracks about their schedule, EMU is probably a decent defensive team, but I think BG can get into the 60s on them.

Flipped around, there are significant areas of difference.  BG is better on turnovers, offensive rebounds and keeping teams off the line, and they will need to win all those battles if the Falcons are going to win a game in the 60s.  EMU is a good FT shooting team as well and they take 3FGs but are 11th in the MAC at making them.

Their leading scorer is 6'3" G Ray Lee.  He is sophomore who scores 14.7 on 48% shooting and 38% from 3FG.  The second leading scorer is Karrington Ward, who was a JUCO teammate of Richaun Holmes.  He is scoring 13.5 PPG on 40% and 30% and leads the team with 6.8 RPG.  PG Mike Talley, who transferred from Duquesne, scores 10 PPG on 49% shooting and also has more than 4 assists.  Their highest volume 3FG shooter is Jodan Price, a DePaul transfer who has jacked up 95 treys and made 30%.

So, all in all, with home court and what we see above, this is a game BG needs to win. Home losses are deadly--and then factor in a beatable opponent.  Let's look forward to a Falcon W Wednesday night.