What is their (Buffalo's) body of work?
Buffalo has had a tough year, probably better than the 4-7 record would indicate but at the same time not as good as Coach Clawson made it sound. They have only 3 FBS wins, and the others were over 1-10 UMass, a WMU team where the coach got fired and a Miami team that isn't great. On the other hand, they have won 3 in a row, lost by 5 to Toledo, 7 to OU, 7 to Uconn. As I said, in a way they remind me of our team last year. They had a tough MAC schedule (crossovers with UT, NIU) but overall their schedule is not as tough as Coach made it sound.
How many seniors and juniors on the two-deep?
They have 26 on their two deep which is a pretty decent number. Most of those guy are juniors--like BG, they have few seniors in the 2-deep (6).
Who are their statistical leaders?
Khalil Mack, a genuine stud, is tied for 2nd in the FBS for tackles for loss.
What is their turnover ratio?
This is a significant issue. They are -8, 11th in the MAC. Their per play statistics aren't showing up in scoring. They have gained only 13 turnovers, tied for last in the MAC.
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| These people did not hear about the Black Friday Bash. |
Offense:
How is their QB Play?
It is a pretty good question. They started the season with Alex Zordich at the helm. He was a dual threat kinda guy and was injured heading into the Miami game and they brought in R-FR Joe Licata and he has been starting since then and during their 3 game winning streak. He is a uni-threat QB, but has a strong arm and Buffalo has altered the playbook for him. He has increased the team's numbers across the board, but Zordich was not a passed--efficiency rating 109. Licata has 123, but that's still not in the top 10 in the MAC.
What is their scoring and yards per play?
For the year they are 12th in the MAC in scoring. Over the past 3 games they have averaged 28 points, with would be in the middle of the pack. Their overall production, 5.4 yards per play, is tied for 11th in the conference.
Can they run the ball?
They have a decent running attack. They are tied for 6th with 4.6 yards per carry. Now, that includes Zordich's production and Branden Oliver, their top TB, who is questionable for the game.
Do they pass the ball?
For the season they are 11th in the MAC. Licata has (as noted) improved that, but the opposition wasn't great.
How is their run/pass balance?
They have been a run focused team. They run the ball on 57% of their plays.
Do they convert on 3rd Down?
They are 12th in the MAC.
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| I can more or less guarantee you won't get trampled Friday at Crew Stadium. |
4.2 points per trip is below average and 3 trips per game is on the low side of average.
Do they protect the quarterback?
They give up sacks on 5.7% of their pass plays, which is good but nothing great.
In general, I'd like to think this is a good opportunity for our defense to reassert itself. This is a decent offensive team but not a great offensive team with a young QB who is not a threat to run. We have defended the pass very effectively and if we can pick it back up against the run, I'd like to think we win this battle. Extra emphasis if Oliver does not play.
Defense:
Topline: Scoring and yards per play.
They are 3rd in the MAC in yards per play and #6 in scoring defense. That's an artifact of the turnover issues. They have a pretty good defense.
Do they defend the run effectively?
They are good. They are 3rd in the MAC in yards per rush allowed. Dri Archer had 127 against them.
Can they be passed on?
They are good--4th in the MAC. They allow only 55% completion percentage. They do allow 13 yards per completion, which is a lot and they have 10 INTs. As we will see later, that combines with one of the nation's top pass rushes.
Do they get off the field on 3rd down?
They do, they are 3rd in the MAC.
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| Whether you get arrested is another matter. |
They allow 4 trips per game, which is on the high side of average but not terrible. (Turnover artifact). Once there, teams score only 4.5 points per trip.
Do they pressure the QB?
They are 8th in FBS and #1 in the MAC in sacks. That's 8.8% of the passing attempts against them. Accordingly, I would expect a steady diet of 3 step drops a max protect routes from the Falcons.
To win this game, BG will have to reassert the running game and win more along the model of what you saw during the winning streak. I would expect Buffalo to do exactly what Kent did--commit to stopping the run--but Buffalo has been susceptible to long passes. Their pass rush has to be a concern but I believe BG will need some semblance of a passing game or stifling defense to win.
Special Teams:
Punting?
They are last in the MAC in net punting and have been blocked twice.
Punt Return?
They are 11th in the MAC with no TDs and a block.
Placekicking?
The guy has a long but less accurate leg. He is 4-5 over 40 with a long of 49 but only 7 of 10 inside 40. Is it easier to kick in a soccer stadium?
Kickoff?
They are worst in the MAC, allowing teams to start on the 33. They have given up 2 TDs, and this presents a nice opportunity for Boo Boo or Pettigrew.
Kickoff Return?
They are 12th in the MAC and start on the 25, which is right where you would start on a touchback.
Miscellaneous: Overall atmospherics and intangibles.
A couple of things. OK, three.
Second, we don't know what to expect from Buffalo. Last year when we ended the season with them, Coach said it would show "who loved football" because there was nothing else to play for. Buffalo is in that position, so it will be interesting to see how they react.
Third, BG is coming off a tough loss. Will they respond and play well or will they come out and play like a team who left everything at the Doyt last Saturday?
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