MAC Predictions....

The season ticks closer everyday.  We are one week from kickoff in the swamp.  With that, there's a little bit of pre-season business to take care of, the first of which is to make my predictions for the MAC.  Tomorrow I will predict each game in the Falcon season.  As always, we will check back at the end of the year and see how stupid this all was.

East:

1.  Ohio

I had my doubts, but Frank Solich is clearly creating a true program down in Athens.  I ranked OU 25th in my Blogpoll ranking earlier today, and I think this is the best team in the East and in the MAC.  They have the top QB in the East, are very strong up front and have strong defensive backfield.  Finally, my guess is that the MAC Championship collapse will create a sense of mission.

2.  BG

I like the Falcons a lot this year.  I don't believe we are as strong as OU on the offensive front or at QB, OU has a lot more seniors on their two-deep than BG does and when we play OU the game will be played in Athens, so for all those reasons I think OU edges out BG for the East title.

3.  Miami

Miami is on the road back, much as the Falcons are.  They will bring a very strong defense to the games this year, but will continue to struggle on offensive due to issues running the ball and on the offensive line....not that these won't be improved over last year, but they will still remain liabilities.  They play @BG this year and for all those reasons, I think they are 3rd.

4.  Kent

Big fall off here.  I keep expecting Kent to emerge and turn into a good team and it keeps not happening.  I think Darrel Hazell is a good coach who has the ability to turn the program around if it can be done.  The defense that has been built over the past few years still remains, but the offense is really going to struggle.  They were poor at QB, had a big competition and then named the incumbent to the job again and they have gaps on the O-line.  Also, they play @BG and @Miami.


5.  Buffalo

Another team trying to dig out of a big hole and probably frustrated at the progress they are making.  They have talent at QB but it may not be ready to go experience-wise and will struggle on both sides of the ball.  I believe this year puts Coach Quinn firmly on a hot seat.


6.  Akron

Big name Terry Bowden takes over here, but it is going to take some time.  They are just an awful team....the defense appears to be historically bad and the offense only slightly better.  This program can be brought around, but Bowden has very little to work with.

7.  UMass

Jumping up from FCS is tough (even to the MAC) and it will show for UMass, who was only 5-6 last year against an FCS sked.  They are committed to building a program and are similar to Temple when Temple joined the MAC.  This is going to be a long year.


West

1. WMU

I feel like WMU is the team that tricks you every year.  They should always be better than they are.  Can this be the year?  Their perennial West rivals (UT and NIU) are down a hair this year, and WMU has the best QB in the conference and a strong offensive unit.  They have stuck with Cubit and I'm thinking this is the year they get it done.  They also play UT and NIU at home.

2.  UT

Things are going to be interesting at UT, as it evolves out of the post-Beckman era.  Matt Campbell is an interesting choice.  I'm not so hung up on his age as I am on the fact that promoting from within has had very mixed success over the past years in the MAC (BG, Miami, Ball State).  They should be very good this year, strong at QB and up front.  The defense probably remains a work in progress and while they lost a lot at RB, name a time when they didn't have RBs.  With a good game in K-zoo, they could easily win the West.

3.  NIU

The MAC's strongest program over the last 10 years, NIU brings a solid team back and has a change to compete in the West.  They have an unknown at QB and have to replace almost the entire offensive line, but should be improved on defense.  I think they are well coached and have a chance to compete in the West, but I don't see them higher than third.

4.  CMU

The Chips have a shot to be a sleeper.  The team is not that great, but they have a favorable cross-over schedule and they had a poor turnover ratio last year--Phil Steele has shown that teams like this tend to get better the next year.  They have a good O-line, but Radcliffe has never really turned into a strong QB and the defense will have trouble dealing with the potent WMU and UT attacks.  I think Dan Enos is on a hot seat and this could be a tough year for him.

5.  Ball State

Fifth here, but I suspect if they played in the East we'd be picking them for 4th.  Phil Steele mentions that they were badly outgained last year and were probably lucky to have the record they do have.  I like them better than EMU on the offensive side of the ball (Keith Wenning might be the best kept secret in the MAC) and they actually start their season with EMU at home this week.  

6.  EMU

EMU did the big surprise thing last year, winning six games (though two were against FCS competition) and I think they will come back down to earth this year.  This program has not had a winning season since 1995, which is almost unfathomable.  I like them at QB and English plays a tough run-oriented style, but I don't see their defense being able to sustain them and I can't imagine them finishing higher than 4th.