Athens OH is the next stop for the Falcons, in a game that is shaping up to be pretty important as the teams in the MAC East battle for byes in the upcoming MAC tournament. A lot can change in a few games...it wasn't but a couple of weeks ago that the Bobcat Faithful where whining about the MAC's inability to earn them a televised bracket buster game, what with their hot start and all...even when they were up near the top of the standings, they had already played more of their home schedule than anyone else, and it was likely to be hard to sustain, and, indeed, they went out and lost @EMU and @UT and dropped themselves into a tie with BG for 4th.
Having said that, despite being on a two-game losing streak, they have won all their MAC games at home and are 13-1 at the Convo so far this year. They have to be feeling the pressure, and BG did beat the Bobcats at the Stroh to open MAC play. The Falcons are playing well...but against the West...I just think this has the potential to be a really interesting game.
It would appear to me that OU's struggles in the last two games have been on the defensive end. Against UT, they gave up 1.11 points per possession, their worst of the season and against EMU, who can't score against anyone, they gave up 1.08 points per possession, their third worst game of the season. Which is unusual....during conference play, they have been the 2nd most efficient defensive team in the MAC.
Their defensive style is to force turnovers. They have forced turnovers on 26.7% of their possessions in conference play, which is 3rd in the nation. When they don't get a turnover, they are 4th in the MAC in defending the shot. They are in the middle of the pack in preventing offensive rebounds and they do allow a log of free throws, but, in general, they have been successful with this style of defense. I am sure they will be out to show that the last two games were an exception to the rule.
BG broke that formula up a little bit the first time the two teams played...BG did have 21 turnovers, but forced 18 of their own, and shot the ball much better than OU did, and then BG had a nice day on offensive rebounding as well. OU for 4 of 20 from beyond the arc for the game. Four factor report from the first contest....
On offense, they are 6th in offensive efficiency. This is built on taking good care of the ball (3rd in the MAC) and they get to the line--2nd in the MAC in free throw rate (and first in free throws made). This all mitigates that they are 10th in shooting the ball. If you look again at the chart above, you can see that BG broke that code...OU shot poorly and yet BG forced turnovers, and OU had what was then and is now their worst offensive game of the season.
Individually, they are led in scoring by DJ Cooper, who is scoring 13 points, and getting 4 rebounds and 4 assists per game. Now, that's not quite the whole story. Dude is shooting 28% from the field. His first two years, his offensive rating was 110 and 107, but this year it is 90, which is 69th in the MAC, a 12-team conference. It is his lowest shooting percentage of his career by 10%. And, his assist turnover rating is 1.3 after being over 2 for the first two years and he's 17th in the MAC. This is a good example, I think, of some gaudy numbers for a guy who is using up a ton of possessions to get where he is going.
Walter Offut is scoring 12.5 points per game. The OSU transfer has a better offensive rating, though he is only 25th in the MAC. He does get to the line, he's 3rd in the MAC in that category.
Behind him, Ivo Baltic is scoring 9 points a game. He missed most of the EMU game with an injury, but a tweet from Athens just now says that he has been cleared to play tomorrow. It will be interesting to see how many minutes he gets. Jon Smith and Reggie Keely are their top rebounders with about 5 per game.
So, no real offensive stars, but above average in the MAC and we knew that. The test is on defense.
In the first game, Cooper had 15 points, 3 assists and 4 turnovers, shooting 5 of 17, and Baltic had 14 points and 5 assists. Keely added 7 rebounds. For BG, Crawford had 16, Thomas 10/10, and Calhoun 12/1. Dee Brown added 13.
OU is clearly a tougher team at home, but I think/hope BG is better than when the two teams played in January. To me, the keys are how well the guards take care of the ball, and if BG can get Calhoun going in the paint. If he is a force inside, lots of things open up for us. The second half of the UT game would be a pretty good model.
One last thing...at his presser this week, Coach Orr noted that BG had played much better in a pressure defense than we did in a half court defense. We just seemed to have more energy. He did hint that we'd continue to play that way in the future. We played a zone mostly in the first game, and I'd certainly expect to see that for most or all of the game tomorrow.
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