He's slippery.
And that opportunity will exist tomorrow at the Stroh.
This has been a tough year for evil. The Red Hawks are 9-18 and 5-9 in the MAC. There have been suspension, dismissals, injuries. Could karma be catching up to Mr. Coles, the universe's malevolent revenge? I'm not inclined to think that way.
The first time through the East, Miami on only one game (Buffalo at Millett). They split on the cross-overs, including losing @NIU. Back in the East, they did beat Kent in Oxford, but the Falcons also beat Kent on our home floor too. They lost @Buffalo by 10 in their most recent games.
So, there is a perception they are playing better, but everybody in the East used the West as a buffet table. I'm not sure they are playing that much better.
Like a lot of struggling teams, they are sucking wind on the road. Their only MAC road win was @BSU.
The first time the two teams played, it was a close game for 32 minutes and then BG shot out to a 10 point lead that they nursed home. The Redhawks battled back but never got within 5 with the ball just inside a minute, but BG finally got a stop and rode home to an 8 point win.
BG had 10 steals in the game and shot 50% from the field, making only 2 3s. Thanks to the turnovers and poor 3 point shooting, BG held Miami to .9 points per possession, which is where the Falcons need to be to win.
Jordan Crawford seems to play well against Miami, and he went crazy with 25 points on 10 of 13 shooting. Thomas double-double at 11/11 and added 8 flipping steals. Brown and Calhoun also scored in double figures. Cam Black blocked 3 shots.
Miami was led by their best player and one of the MAC's best players, Julian Mavunga, who had 17/7 assists. They had no other players in double figures.
This Miami team is a little different than normal. Typically, the evil genius puts a defensively-minded, slow-paced team on floor. However, in MAC games, they are 11th in defensive efficiency. That is simply not typical. They are 8th in effective FG% defense, and 10th in forcing turnovers. They are in the middle of the pack on the offensive boards and are 9th in allowing free throws. It is a little interesting, because you wouldn't expect those numbers to add up to 11th in defensive efficiency, but somehow they do.
BG has been shooting well at the Stroh and will need it to continue.
Offensively, Miami is not too bad. They are among the top 2 3-point shooting teams in the MAC and no team in D1 gets a higher percentage of its points from the 3-ball. Coach Orr was asked if BG would go man in response to that, (Miami shot only 30% the first time the teams played) and Coach kept his options open while saying that he thinks zone is our best defense right now.
Miami is 3rd in effective field goal %, but only 7th in offensive efficiency. They are last in the MAC in getting to the line and last in offensive rebounding (a classic Coles trait). They care good care of the ball (4th in turnover percentage) so clearly, the rebounding and free throws are holding them back.
At 60 possessions per game, they are the second slowest team in the MAC, so that's not changed.
Chart is for all games.
Mavunga is the guy everything runs through. In MAC play, he is scoring 15 points, getting 8 rebounds and 4 assists. Their other double-figure scorer is FR Brian Sullivan who is scoring 12 points and leading the MAC with 47% of 3s made (and 2nd in attempts).
Jon Harris and Quinten Rollins are also averaging 9 points. Harris and Josh Sewell are both shooting 46% from 3.
So, to me, the keys are for BG to defend the perimeter effectively, manage Mavunga and then exploit Miami's weak defense on the other end. On senior day, you'd love to see Scott Thomas and Dee Brown light the place up. This is a game BG needs to win. Their hopes for a bye still exist, but wins are needed. The Falcons played well against Kent (though far from a perfect game). We're running out of runway, but you get hot now and it changes a lot. If its one step forward and one step back...then that's what you are going to finish with.
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