Kitty, Kitty, Kitty

Things get serious now.

The Falcons play Ohio, Akron and Kent over the next 3 games and will get a full snort of the best teams the MAC has to offer.  Two of those games are at home, which is good, as BG has played well at home, but it also means that if BG doesn't win, it will have more road games left as it tries to make up a gap.

If BG is serious about competing to be in the top 4 of the conference, the next three games--and especially the next two--are vital, nearly must wins.  At 0-2 (worst case) with only 6 home games left in the MAC schedule, you'd be facing a really tall road.

The first team to come into the Stroh is the team that everyone is talking about in the MAC, the Ohio U Bobcats.  They are 12-2, after playing a schedule that, RPI wise, is very similar to BG's.  They went on the road to beat very good Marshall and Northern Iowa teams (the latter was a 17 point win) and they beat a good Lamar team at the Convo.  They have beaten the teams they should.  Their only losses are to Louisville and Robert Morris, both Top 100 teams.

This is a balanced Ohio U team.  They are 3rd in the MAC in points per game and 4th in points allowed per game.  Tempo-free, they are even better, second in the MAC in offense (1.06 points per possession) and 3rd in defense (.98 points per possession).  That latter number is 36th in the country.

It isn't hard to see why.  The defense is built on turnovers.  They have been forcing turnovers on almost 27% of their opponent's possessions (8th in D1) and they are getting steals on 13.6% of their opponent's possessions (14th in D1).  Unlike Duquesne and UTSA, however, even if you get to the shot they are pretty effective.  Their are allowing a FG% of only 41%, a 3FG% of 35 and an effective FG% of 52%, each of which is either fourth or fifth in the MAC.

They do a reasonable job on the defensive boards but do give up a lot of free throws, which often comes with an aggressive defense.

The first challenge for the Falcons is this:  OU presents exactly the kind of defense that BG has struggled with.  BG has struggled with taking care of the ball and if they don't have that ironed out tomorrow, it will be a very long day for BG.  After that, however, BG is going to have to make some shots, and if they do turn the ball over, they're going to have to make a lot of shots.

All this talk about defense is not to slight their offense, which is 2nd in the MAC in points per possession.  They are 5th in FG% but 4% in effective field goal %.  They have shot and made for 3s than any other team in the conference.  They are average rebounders and they don't get to the line that much, but building off steals and a strong 3-point attack, this team is very formidable on the offensive end as well.

They are led by Junior DJ Cooper who scores 14 points per game, 6.5 assists (2nd in MAC), and 2.5 steals (first in the MAC by a lot).  Ivo Baltic is averaging 11 points and 5 rebounds, Reggie Keely 10 points and 5 rebounds.  Walter Offut is also scoring 11 points a game as well.

This is an ensemble cast.

That doesn't include Nick Kellogg, who is their 3 point specialist.  While averaging about 9 points a game, he is hitting 49% from beyond the arc.

This is not a big team.  Baltic and Keely are only 6'8".  This is an athletic, guard oriented team.

I've documented before that teams in the MAC win about 2/3 of their home games, so we have that, and we have a team that has played well at home.  This is going to require a complete effort out of the Falcons, such as we have really only seen in the Temple game.  BG is going to have to take care of the ball, make shots, and then defend better than they have so far this season.  Whichever defense we use--or both--we have to be prepared to defend a team that has inside and outside players who score.

I hate to sound pessimistic.  Jordan Crawford has been playing well, if he takes care of the ball and produces at the point, and they can get Calhoun untracked and creating pressure on the inside, then BG should absolutely be able to play with these guys.

But, if you think you are one of the top 4 teams in the conference, you need this win on your home floor.

And one prediction:  this is John Groce's last year coaching in the MAC.