The middle phase of the MAC schedule is cross over time, when East plays West. This is where things start to become clearer. The East is considerably stronger than the West, and this is typically a time when we see if those jackrabbits who have run to the front of the Western pack are players or pretenders. And, the East teams realize they need a nice run to be competitive. It was in the cross-over games that BG's regular season championship team began to take form....perhaps it might happen again.
First, the Chips. They come to the Stroh at 7-11 on a 3-game losing streak. They have played, to date, a pretty easy schedule. RPI wise, their best win is @EMU, which is pretty hard to believe. They also lost @Tennessee State and are the only D1team anywhere on earth to lose to #337 NIU.
Looking at conference games only, and remembering who that includes, CMU is 6th in the conference in offensive efficiency at a straight up 1 point per possession. They lead the MAC in 3FG and 3FGA although they are only 5th in 3FG%. Their efficiency is largely tied to the fact that they lead the MAC in only giving up turnovers on 15% of their possessions. They need every one of those possessions, because they are 9th in Effective FG%, 9th in Free Throw Rate and last in offensive rebound percentage.
Coach Orr said at his presser this week that CMU is a guard-oriented team. If BG can keep the guards from getting hot from outside, they should be able to own the paint. In other words, you'd like to think this is a nice match up for our defense.
Defensively, the Chips are allowing 1.04 points per possession, which is 9th in the MAC. They are dreadful defending the shot--they are last at 55% Effective Field Goal Percentage. They do force turnovers--they are 3rd in the MAC at about 26%, but they are 10th in defending their own offensive boards and allow the highest free throw rate in the MAC.
CMU is paced by 3 high scoring drives. Obviously, phenom Trey Zeigler is leading the way with 14.6 points and 6.8 rebounds, both team highs. Derek Jackson and Austin McBroom are both 6'0" guards who are scoring 13 points a game. McBroom also gets about 3 assists per game.
I don't know how to say this any differently than this...BG absolutely has to have this game. Two home losses in a row have put BG behind the 8-ball, and they need to hold serve, especially against a team like this. I don't necessarily think that BG is a MAC powerhouse, but on our home floor, we just gotta have this game. A loss here, and even competing for home court becomes a challenge.
Beyond that, if this team is going to play with its better nature, it needs a run through the West, and this is a chance to help.
Final note: as if to make the point, Akron beat West favorite Ball State by 12 last night in Muncie and Buffalo smoked upstart EMU, though that game was in Buffalo.
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