So, now, on the eve of the season, I sit down and try to predict how BG will do in each game this season. Then, when the season is over we'll take a second look, assess the damage, agree what a fool I am, and then move on.
These tough years are the worst. I'd like to think we can win every game, and I'd like to think that as we pick up the pace through the year, we will beat Temple at home or pull off the upset at KSU. Honestly, though, I think that BG is going to have a tough year again. We will be better, but we do not have many easy games on the schedule, I think we will be hard pressed to break through.
While I think our players are better, this team remains very, very young. And, our young guys are playing. 28 of the 46 players on our two-deep are freshmen or sophomores. Many of them have not played at all. So, while they are good, they are not experienced. Secondly, while I think our O-line is better, I am not sure how much better, and until I am, I am worried about whether they are just improved or whether they will be good.
So we will look at this a couple of ways. First, here, in all my darkness, is my prediction for the season, with a short capsule for each game. I'm going 5-7 and 3-5 in the MAC.
9/1/2011 at Idaho L
This game appears to be winnable, but a young team on the road in a hostile environment is a tough assignment. I think Idaho picks up the win.
9/10/2011 Morgan State W
BG wins this game against FCS team that was picked to be 6th in the MEAC.
9/17/2011 Wyoming W
I like BG to win this one at home. They are much like BG--they were 3-9 and while they are on an upward vector, they are also still building and I think BG wins. Plus, Cowboy OC Gregg Brandon struggled in the Doyt in his last years, and he cannot get this out of his head.
9/24/2011 * at Miami L
This is one I would like to think we would win. Miami caught a lot of breaks last year in winning the title. At the same time, they have a new coach I like a lot, and a strong defense that could be a tough matchup for us. We almost beat them last year, so maybe we weren't that far apart, but on their home field I think Miami wins.
10/1 at West Virginia L
Mountaineers too much.
10/8/2011 * at Western Michigan L
Western will be a tough game. If you are going to say that we have a shot at Miami because we almost beat them, what do you say about WMU, who torched us on our field? Western is a strong team and we'd be very pleased if we pulled this one off.
10/15/2011 * Toledo L
I hate picking us to lose to Toledo, especially at home. Having said that, last year's game was not close, and I don't know if we have closed the gap enough. Certainly, if BG starts to look like they are gelling than this is an opportunity to really get up for a game and show what you can do.
10/22/2011 * Temple W
BG nearly beat Temple on the road last year, and this is one I like us to pick up. While I think Temple is a good MAC team, they may not be as good as last year, especially on defense, and I think BG can pick this win up.
10/29/2011 * at Kent State L
I like Kent to win the East and defend the Dix in this game.
11/8/2011 * Northern Illinois L
I think NIU is the best team in the MAC and they will be too much for the young Falcons.
11/16/2011 * Ohio W
Perhaps the biggest upset, I think BG is playing better at this point. OU is also very young, and BG grinds out a win at the Doyt. This is the game where BG shows that it is on the way back.
11/25/2011 * at Buffalo W
Buffalo in November. Nice. Buffalo is one of two teams in the East I have picked behind BG so I like the Falcons to pick up a frozen road win.
In my view, that's on the optimistic side of what I think will happen.
Alternative scenario #1:
If you want to finish .500, keep all those wins and add (say) Idaho.
Alternative scenario #2:
If you want to make a bowl game, keep those 6 wins and add Miami or Kent.
Alternative scenario #3:
If you want to start looking for a very tall bridge to jump off, figure OU is too much for BG, the team is dispirited or beaten up and Buffalo wins at home and Temple wins a game they should be favored in. BG finishes with a second 10 loss season under this scenario.
Obviously, nothing always goes right or always goes wrong, which is how I end up at 5-7. Having said that, I think scenario #3 is a lot more likely than scenario #2....and probably than scenario #1.
I do think we are on the right track. However, I think that Falcons fans should have cautious expectations this year. Having said that, I would be thrilled to be wrong.
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