Man, it is HARD to win on the road....a numeric look at something everybody says

So, every MAC season we hear about how hard it is to win on the road in the MAC.  I thought, here in the frosty days of Spring, we might take a look at a couple of things....is it really hard to win on the road?  Are there good road teams?  Are there bad road teams?  Is there something we can tell about what is separating good teams from bad teams?

These numbers are for regular season CONFERENCE games for the last 5 years.

First, the home teams has won 66% of the games over that time.  That sounds like a lot, and it is.  What we have shown, however, is that it is hard to win on the road in college basketball.  For hot D1 on D1 action, the national average is typically in the range of 67% anyway.  So, it is hard to win on the road in college basketball, and the MAC is pretty typical.

With that in mind, let's look at teams on their home court.  The chart below shows the win-loss record, and then how many games above or below the league average.  For example, Kent is 36-4 at home, and that is 10 games above a team winning 66% of its home games.

So, what do we see here?  First, and most notably, only one team in the MAC has a losing record on their home floor over the past 5 seasons.  Even UT, with the last 2 horrifying seasons, finished in plus territory.

Also, the results are a little top heavy.  Only 5 teams are above average, and 7 below average, thanks to Kent, Miami and Akron bringing the numbers up.

Our Falcons are, in fact, 3 games below average based on defending the home court.

Next, the road.

Here, only two teams have winning records, Kent and Akron, and only 4 teams are above average.  Both UT and NIU are really poor, averaging less than two road wins per season.

The Falcons, in fact, are one game better, relative to average, on the road than they are at home.

So, the final question is this...are there actually teams that are very good at home who cannot win on the road?

The answer is yes, two in particular.  Most notably, Miami is +8 at home and only +1 on the road.  If they were as consistent as Kent and Akron, they would probably have at least one more regular season title in their pocket.

OU has a five-game differential.  They are slightly above average team at home (+3) and poor on the road (-2).

The other example, though less extreme, is WMU.  They are +5 at home and +2 on the road, but given the weakness of the West, they could easily have another division title or two if their road play improved.

No team was more than two games better on the road then at home, relative to the average.  However, Akron, BG, Ball, EMU and NIU were each 1 game better on the road than they were at home, compared to the average.

So, you can conclude that Kent and Akron are the class of this conference, and for whatever else they have going for them, they have an ability to win games on the road that is not shared by the conference brethren.  Also, there are no road specialists--teams with some mystical ability to win on the road that isn't reflected in their home record.  And, you can identify three teams that are good at home, and would be serious contenders if they could match it on the road.