So, the Falcons head to Akron to play the Zips at the JAR tomorrow. Right now, you have two teams on different vectors. BG is playing really well, and Akron has lost their last 3. In fact, I believe that is one of the two storylines for the game: Akron is at home, and simply cannot afford to drop another home game if they hope to win one of the MAC's 4 byes in the tournament. As much as you can be, this early in the season, Akron has their back to the wall.
The second storyline is BG on the road. BG is 1-1 in the MAC on the road, but has been playing well mostly at home. In the last road game, we got smoked at Kent. The challenge for BG is to come into the JAR against a team that desperately needs a win, and beat them.
The Zips are obviously one of the better teams in the MAC over the past few years. They have 20 wins each of the last 5 seasons, and they have won 86% of their games in the JAR during Dambrot's tenure.
This year, they have beaten @UDetroit (who BG lost to), and beat Oral Roberts as well. They have quality losses to Temple, Dayton, and Miami (FL). Further, they started the MAC with a home win against their arch rival Kent, but then have dropped the next 3.
They are 10-8.
I looked at their last 3 games to see what might be happening. The biggest trend was defense. For the year, they are at .98 points per possession, which is pretty good. However, for the 3 MAC games, they are over 1 point per possession in each one, and were especially bad against Buffalo (1.13) and Miami (1.25). In fact, the Miami game was their worst defensive performance of the year, including Temple and Dayton.
They have also given up a bunch of free throws in those 3 games. We will see below, they do foul a lot.
In terms of those last 3 games, they had a poor offensive night against OU's not so good defense, and they are not getting to the line very much on offense. Finally, they were killed on the boards by both Miami and Buffalo.
What you below is a pretty evenly matched game, at least on paper. BG has a good opportunity to get better on the inside and get some turnovers. More on Akron's stuff below.
On offense, Akron has yet to find the range from beyond the arc. (All stats below are MAC games only) They like to try--they are third in 3FG Attempts, but they are 9th in percentage. BG's zone will have to keep them from choosing tomorrow to get well. Oh, and before I forget, OU dropped a 2-3 zone on them and local reports were that they had trouble with it, so it will be interesting to see how they handle BG's.
They are also 3rd in possessions, playing an upbeat style, though they are second to last in turning the ball over. (note high tempo, however). They are third in fouls.
On defense, they are lousy against the 3. They are last in the MAC in 3FG defense, which is either something BG is not ready to take advantage of, or (if we shoot like we did against OU), a nice opportunity. They are also 111th in efficiency, see above.
Individually, you cannot tell the story of Akron with telling Chronicles of Zeke---the 7'0" Zeke Marshall who came to Akron with as much ballyhoo as possible. He's getting 10 points and 5 rebounds per game to go with 2-3 blocks, but he still has yet to really break through like you would expect for a player of his hype. For example, in the Kent game, he went 20/11, but has been inside double figures the other 3 conference games and has 4 fouls in each one. He is among the most frequent foulers in the MAC.
Brett McClanahan is the top scorer for the Zips. He's a 6'4" Jr, who scores at 11.7 and gets 4 rebounds. Just behind him is Nikola Cvetinovic, a 6'8" Serbian who has stepped up nicely, getting 11.6 and 6 boards.
Brett McKnight was suspended for most of the 2010 portion of the season, but he is 10.1 points and 2.5 rebounds. Alex Abreu leads the team with 3.9 assists.
Two final notes. No one on Akron gets a ton of minutes, that's how Dambrot coaches. Second, Akron is the second most experience team in the MAC....
I'm looking forward to seeing this one. For the reasons above, this is a nice test for our team, as they try to win a really tough road game.
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