What is their body of work?
This has been a pretty disappointing season for WMU. They were expected to compete in the West, but are now 5-6 and 4-3 in the conference. They can point to some serious injuries, but their wins this year are over Nicholls State, EMU, Ball State, Akron and Kent, with only Kent representing an even marginally quality win. They also lost to their arch-rival CMU in a year when they probably thought they were going to even the score a little.
How many seniors and juniors on the two-deep?
17
Do they have players in the National Top 20 rankings?
WMU has the best 1-2 combo of WRs in the MAC. Jordan White is tied for fourth in receptions per game and Juan Nunez is 6th. White is also 4th in receiving yards per game. Lewis Toler is 9th in interceptions.
What is their turnover ratio?
They are +1 for the year. Much like Bowling Green, they have created a lot of turnovers and given them right back.
Offense:
How is their QB Play?
Their QB is So. Alex Carder, and he is blessed to work with the two receiving tandem in the MAC. He is very productive. He leads the MAC in passing yards per game, total offense and is 2nd in passing efficiency, hampered only by his high interception rate. His 26 TDs is way ahead of the next QB at 17
What is their scoring and yards per play?
They are 2nd in scoring and tied for 2nd in yards per play.
Can they run the ball?
They are not a great rushing team--they are 7th in yards per rush.
Do they pass the ball?
By process of elimination this has been covered above. They are a very strong offensive team, and they don't run, so it must be passing. Their QBs and WRs are very productive.
How is their run/pass balance?
They pass the ball on 59% of their downs, which is very high in college football today.
Do they convert on 3rd Down?
They are very good here---3rd in the MAC. With the passing offense, they have a much higher range of makable down and distance scenarios than many teams do
Do they score in the red zone?
They score 4.63 points per red zone trip, which is below the national average and 8th in the MAC. This has worked because they have gotten to the red zone 50 times, 2nd in the MAC. Their 37 scores have included 31 TDs. They have been stopped on downs 7 times, most in the conference.
Do they protect the quarterback?
This is a downside for the team. They have given up 28 sacks which is 6.6% of their passing attempts, which is a lot. (Their negative play rate is 8.5% on passes, which is about the national average).
It is easy to be pessimistic on this. UT came into BG with an average MAC conference and lit the BG defense up pretty good. WMU comes in with a very strong attack. If the results are similar, it will be a long day. Most importantly, BG needs to keep those 2 WRs in front of them...if the Broncos spring a couple big plays and make us play from behind, that's going to be very difficult to overcome.
Defense:
Topline: Scoring and yards per play.
They are 7th in scoring defense and 9th in yard per play allowed.
Do they defend the run effectively?
They are tied for 8th in yards per carry against.
Could they be passed on?
They are 6th in passing yards allowed and 9th in passing efficiency allowed.
Do they get off the field on 3rd down?
They are 7th in the MAC, at 39.2%.
Do they defend in the red zone?
They are very good in the red zone. They have allowed only 4.06 points per trip, which is second to the MAC and only by a little. They have allowed 27 scores but 10 of those are FGs. They have 4 stops on downs.
Do they pressure the QB?
They are very good--4th in the MAC.
What we have here is an average defensive team--but better on paper than the Rocket team that pretty much locked us down last week. They are very banged up on defense, but BG is going to need to get some points to keep up with the WMU attack. They held Kent to 3 points in their last game.
Special Teams:
Punting?
They are 5th in the MAC in net punting with no blocks and no TDs allowed.
Punt Return?
They are 9th in punt returns, with no TDs. They have blocked one punt.
Placekicking?
Their kicker is John Potter who is 8-10 with a 42 yard long. He's only tried 10, and we've established that they like to go for it, so they either figure they need all the points they can get or they don't trust Potter.
Kickoff?
They are very good in this area, starting their opponents on their own 23. They have allowed 1 TD.
Kickoff Return?
They are 3rd in the MAC in this area as well, with a 1 TD. They typically start on their 28.
Miscellaneous: Overall atmospherics and intangibles.
There are a few things. First, who is still playing hard? Neither team has very much to play for. WMU certainly showed up in their shellacking of Kent and BG has senior day. I'd like to think we will see a competitive game.
WMU has a long-shot chance at a bowl game with a win, but I don't think there's really any way they make one.
WMU has a much shorter week. They played Kent on Saturday, while BG played Toledo last Wednesday. You'd think this would be a nice advantage for the Falcons.
There was a time when I was confident we'd at least have a shot in a shoot-out. I'm not sure this is the case this year. Something will have to break for BG to win. This team is, play for play, as good as UT.
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