What is their body of work?
Buffalo has played a relatively difficult pre-MAC schedule, but they are 1-3. Their only win was against Rhode Island, and they have lost to UConn, UCF and Baylor. I would say that their body of work has not yet revealed how good they are. They don't have a FBS win, and you'd think on a good day you could beat UCF, especially since it was a home game for the Bulls.
Buffalo has played a relatively difficult pre-MAC schedule, but they are 1-3. Their only win was against Rhode Island, and they have lost to UConn, UCF and Baylor. I would say that their body of work has not yet revealed how good they are. They don't have a FBS win, and you'd think on a good day you could beat UCF, especially since it was a home game for the Bulls.
What is their best recent result?
Well, depending how far you want to go back, their program's biggest win had to be the win over #12 Ball State in the MAC Championship in 2008. The last two years have not had any big wins for the program.
What is their worst recent result?
Similarly, they don't have any disastrous losses this year or last. Their losses have tended to be not surprising.
What is their turnover ratio?
They are -3 thus far and lead the MAC with 8 turnovers.
Offense:
How is their QB Play?
Buffalo had been targeting Zach Maynard to be their QB of the future but he got out of the ol' bullpen and Buffalo went with Soph Jerry Davis of Fresno CA. He played a little bit in mop-up roles last season. So far, he is only completing 47% of his passes (in a spread attack) and has a league-leading 7 INTs. He is clearly still adjusting to his role.
How is their QB Play?
Buffalo had been targeting Zach Maynard to be their QB of the future but he got out of the ol' bullpen and Buffalo went with Soph Jerry Davis of Fresno CA. He played a little bit in mop-up roles last season. So far, he is only completing 47% of his passes (in a spread attack) and has a league-leading 7 INTs. He is clearly still adjusting to his role.
What was their scoring and yards per play?
Given their struggles passing and running, they are 12th in the MAC in scoring. Their 4.5 yards per play is in the lower half of the conference. They are 4th in total offense solely because they run a crazy amount of plays...they are averaging 10 plays a game more than the next team in the MAC.
Can they run the ball?
They are really struggling to run the ball. Typically, the cure for that has been orange and brown, (and it certainly was for Buffalo last year), and if the Falcons play well in this phase, I think they have a shot to keep this a problem for Buffalo. They have not run for one TD all season.
Do they pass the ball?
Davis' struggles are covered above. They have some excellent WRs, however, so if Davis gets time and makes good throws, they can burn you, especially deep.
How is their run/pass balance?
Sack adjusted, they are about what you would expect from Quinn's spread....176 passes and 147 runs.
Do they convert on 3rd Down?
38% on the year, which is in the middle of the MAC pack.
Do they score in the red zone?
They are averaging 3.9 yards per trip, which is below average. They have only been stopped twice, but their 10 trips has yielded only 5 TDs.
Do they protect the quarterback?
They have only given up 9 sacks, which is the middle of the MAC pack, but Bull Run, our rival blog from Buffalo, indicated in our blog swap that protection has been an issue, so there may have been pressure that did not lead to a sack.
This is a team that is struggling on offense. BG's job is to make sure they don't get well on Saturday.
Defense:
Topline: Scoring and yards per play.
They are in the middle in scoring defense and #4 in yards per play allowed.
Do they defend the run effectively?
They are giving up 3.8 yards per rush, which is 6th in the MAC.
Could they be passed on?
They lead the MAC in passing efficiency defense. They allow only 52.7% completions against which is the lowest in the MAC by 5%. This is a strong point for the team, and it identifies what the key battleground will be when we have the ball.
Did they get off the field on 3rd down?
This is a strong point. They allow only 38% conversions and they are second in the MAC.
Do they defend in the red zone?
They are strong in the red zone, with 3.75 points per trip and 3 earned stops in 13 attempts.
Do they pressure the QB?
They have 8 sacks which is third in the MAC and it is twice as many as BG has.
Special Teams:
Punting?
This is not a strong point. They are last in the MAC in net punting and have not been blocked this year.
Punt Return?
Conversley, they are first in the MAC in punt returns. No TDs this year, but Terrell Jackson, their returner, averages over 16 yards on 6 returns.
Placekicking?
The ageless AJ Principe, who seems to be in his 10th year of eligibility, is 4-6 on FGs with both misses coming beyond 40. His season long is 39.
Kickoff?
They are also last in kickoffs. They average only a net of 33 yards on kickoffs, which means that teams start at the 37 against them. Go get 'em Ty.
Kickoff Return?
They are 9th on kickoff returns in the MAC and typically start at their own 25.
Miscellaneous: Overall atmospherics and intangibles.
I don't know what to say here.
You have two teams who really need a win. It will be tough for either team to compete in the MAC without a victory out there Saturday. Who responds in that situation will tell a lot.
Buffalo is still re-tooling to Jeff Quinn's spread offense from Turner Gill's use-a-fullback-offense. They have not shown a terrific amount of success.
I'm hoping we have another big crowd.
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