25 Frank Questions

What is their body of work?

For this season, their body of work is pretty ordinary.  Their wins are over FCS Wofford and the winless EMU Eagles.  Certainly, a loss to OSU is understandable, but they can't have been happy to lose at home to UT.  They nearly beat Marshall on the road, but didn't.  Our true enemy has yet to reveal himself.


OU has had a large number of serious injuries, including to Noah Keller and LaVon Brazill, both of whom were potential All-MAC players and NFL prospects.  They are lost for the season.  From the OU Post:

Besides Brazill and Keller, safety Gerald Moore has missed almost the entire season with a foot injury, and defensive end Dak Notestine, another captain, has been playing in the games despite not practicing during the week.

What is their best recent result?


This year, their best result is a loss, so that doesn't count.  Let's say the win over Temple last season to lock down the East title, which has to be considered a pretty big win in the Solich tenure.

What is their worst recent result?


This year, the Marshall loss has to sting.  The Herd was reeling, and they were on the ropes and OU went for 2 to win and had the play executed, but just had some bad luck hit.  Still, that was on the road and not a bad loss per se.  They also lost to Kent last season.

What is their turnover ratio?


This is a big weakness.  They are last in the MAC and 112th in FBS at -6.

Offense:

How is their QB Play?

OU will probably play two QBs on Saturday, Phil Bates and Boo Jackson.  Understand what OU wants to do--they are a pistol type attack with a run-first focus.  Their play selection is heavily run-biased.  They will throw high percentage passes with the occasional bomb over the top.  Bates and Jackson are creatures of that system, and pretty good ones.  Jackson is 3rd in the MAC in pass efficiency and their 3rd leading rusher.  Bates appears to be more strictly a runner.

What was their scoring and yards per play?

It looks like they are 10th in the MAC in total offense, but that is misleading because they haven't run a ton of plays.  They are actually averaging 4.9 yards per play, which is 5th in the MAC.  (Turnovers could be hurting them here).  They are 7th in the MAC in scoring.

Can they run the ball?

Well, they'd like to, but I can't imagine they are happy with their production in this area.  They are 6th in the MAC with 3.7 yards per carry, which is not great.  Yes, this includes a game against OSU, but also includes a game against Wofford.

Do they pass the ball?


They are 10th in the conference in passing offense (yards) but 8th in passing efficiency, though Bates brings them down (Jackson is better as noted above).  They are 11th in completion percentage, and have thrown 8 INTs, which is a lot given the relatively low amount of attempts. (7.3%).  (Note:  LaVon Brazill, their top receiver, broke his hand and is likely out for the season and their second leading receiver (Riley Dunlap) is also injured).

How is their run/pass balance?

OU runs the ball on 62% of their plays, which is the 22nd highest in the FBS.

Do they convert on 3rd Down?

Given what we have just seen, it is not surprisingly that at 35% they are 11th in the MAC.  

Do they score in the red zone?

They have been successful. They have 4.5 points per red zone trip (maximum 6), which is pretty good, but they have 12 scores in 14 trips, tops in the conference.  This explains how their scoring outpaces their performance in other areas.

Do they protect the quarterback?


They have allowed only 7 sacks, which is second best.  Now, a couple caveats are that they typically throw short-drops, and those seven sacks come on only 109 attempts.

In summary, OU is not an offensive  juggernaut and I don't think they are designed to be.  In this sense, they match up well with us.  If our defense plays with the ability we have seen from time to time, we should be able to keep the score reachable.  Also, OU is turnover prone and our defense has been getting a lot of turnovers, so that presents an opportunity.  If BG decides not to tackle and can't compete on the defensive front, however, OU will have a nice day.

Defense:

Topline: Scoring and yards per play.


OU is 5th in the MAC in yards per play allowed (5.0) and scoring defense.  This is good, but not the defense they are used to having.  They have been playing without their best defensive player, Noah Keller, who is among the best in the conference, for a couple weeks.  On 9/27 they said they would know more in 3-5 weeks, which means I would guess he is not expected to play Saturday.

Do they defend the run effectively?


Apparently no one wants to pass on them, which means that they have seen a lot of run attempts.  They are fifth in yards per carry allowed.
Could they be passed on?


This is a very odd number.  They lead the MAC in yardage per game allowed, but are 9th in pass efficiency.  Opponents have only attempted 24 passes per game, which is the lowest in the MAC.


More on this.  Opponents have run the ball on 64% of their plays against the Bobcats.

Did they get off the field on 3rd down?

They are third in the MAC at just under 38%

Do they defend in the red zone?

At 4.3 points per trip, they are not very strong.  They have only 3 red zone stops, and 2 of those were on missed Field Goals.

Do they pressure the QB?


They have 7 sacks this season, but remember that they are rarely passed on.


In conclusion, OU presents a tough match up for us, especially is Schilz can't go and if we cannot execute better than we did against Buffalo.  The ability to move the ball will be the test for this game.  If BG gets 10 first downs again, it will be pretty impossible to win.

Special Teams:

Punting?

They are 3rd in the MAC in net punting, just one spot ahead of the Falcons.  One of 3 teams in the MAC without a touchback on a punt.  The kicks are not long, but they are rarely returned.  No blocks.

Punt Return?


They are 5th in the MAC in punt returns, with no TDs and a 13 yard long.

Placekicking?

They do have an excellent kicker.  He has yet to miss, and has made 3 of his 6 FGs from beyond 40.  His long is 49,

Kickoff?

They have a net of 42.7 yards per kickoff (starting on the 28 or so), which is 8th in the MAC.  No touchbacks all season.  The kicks are deep but returned.  No TDs.

Kickoff Return?


They are 5th in the MAC in return yards.  They usually start on the 27 off a kickoff.


Miscellaneous: Overall atmospherics and intangibles.


Hard to say here.  Both teams really need a win.  The season gets very tough for BG with another loss.  OU still has to think they can get into the MAC race if they win against the East, and they are feeling OK after beating EMU.


Both teams are seriously banged up, so this game is partly about Plan B.