I checked on ESPN. Right now, there are 46 bowl eligible teams.
You will recall that there are 32 bowls and 64 slots.
There are 26 teams that are just one win away...and that includes a few teams with 6 wins but 2 FCS wins. (You can only count one per season).
46+26=72>64.
So, if BG wants a realistic shot at a bowl, 7 wins is going to be required. The NCAA is required to take a 7 win team over a 6 win team, so I have to believe with two wins coming home BG has a decent shot at it.
Upon further review, there are now 60 bowl eligible teams (as 11/15 AM.) There are actually 34 bowls including the BCS Championship game. The ACC has 9 bowl commitments with 6 team bowl eligible and only Duke and Florida State still having an outside shot of becoming eligible. The EagleBank Bowl comitted a spot to Army who is unlikely to become eligble. If the Big Ten sends two teams to the BCS, they will be one team short of their commitments (assuming Michigan loses to Ohio St.) And assuming TCU goes to a BCS bowl, the Mountain West will be one bid short. All total, there should be 4 or 5 spots available for 'at-large' teams. Assuming BG wins two more, the MAC will have 2 bowl eligible at-large teams. If BG loses one more game this is all for naught. The Sun Belt will have 2 at-large eligible. C-USA could have as many as 3 at-large eligible, but not all with seven wins and the Big 12 will have 1 at-large eligible if they have just Texas
ReplyDeletein the BCS.
It comes down to 7 or 8 teams for 4 or 5 spots. Two things in BG's favor: They have the nation's leading receiver which great for marketing and all five of BG's losses are to teams headed to bowls. My prediction: BG vs. Duke in the EagelBank Bowl.