The Zips have got to be feeling some pressure. They are 0-2 in the MAC, and a loss here would put them 0-3, and that's a tall mountain to climb if you are looking for one of the byes and a chance to run in the tournament. BG, at 1-1, and with no proven ability to win on the road, knows it absolutely has to defend home court.
That's the make up of a narrative for a pretty good game.
Akron's body of work this year is much like Bowling Green's, with one exception--they do have three road wins. I would point out that two of those wins (Fairleigh Dickenson and UNC-Greensboro) were against teams that are below 300 in the RPI, but that would only cause us to remember Savannah State and Central Arkansas, each with its own tale of woe.
Akron has a nice win against Niagara, on the road. So, they have proven they can win on the road.
Overall, they are 8-7. They schedule ranking to date is about where Bowling Green's is. They have lost to very good Pitt, Dayton, VCU and Rhode Island, along with a not-so-good Eastern Kentucky and, of course Miami and Buffalo. The loss to Buffalo was at home--BG does have a win at home vs. Buffalo.
Their wins, beyond the ones listed above, are over Canisius, Withrop, North Carolina A&T, St. Francis (NY) and Urbana.
So, like BG, they have lost to some good teams and beaten some lousy teams.
Teams shoot OK against Akron (46.5% EFG), but their points per possession is .92, which is, you know, really good. Why? Because they are forcing turnovers on almost 30% of their opponent's possessions.
Yes, that's right. No team in the nation has a higher %.
This has a chilling effect. If you miss a shot, you have (if you are BG) a 37.5% chance of getting the rebound and another chance. If you turn it over, you have 0%. And, backcourt turnovers often lead directly to baskets or fouls.
Furthermore, the pressure takes a psychological toll on your team. Possessing the ball seems to take a higher priority than working for shots. That, of course, is the idea.
We are better against pressure than we were a couple years ago. It used to be downright painful to watch our PGs bring the ball up against pressure. Still, we have succumbed to pressure at times this year, and we are not as good at taking care of the ball as we would like.
In my opinion, this is the primary challenge for us today. Akron is very similar to us offensively and not very good on the boards. If we can take care of the ball and get some good shots, and play 40 minutes of D, we can win the game, but I feel like this one will be a dogfight.
Obviously, Joe Jakubowski is key to beating pressure, but it also seems to me that Nate Miller is an important ball handler against pressure, and can take advantage of the overplays and finish around the basket. The same could be true of Chris Knight, though I haven't seen him in this role too much.
In terms of individuals, their three leading scorers are B. McKnight, "Humpty" Hitchens and Linhart, each of whom is averaging 10.7 or 10.6 points per game. (In other words, similar to us, maybe a little worse in terms of go-to scorers). Linhart is their leading rebounder, and they don't really feature a playmaking PG...no player averages more than 2 assists per game.
Linhart is a 6'8" senior, but he is the only senior getting significant minutes. The Zips roster features 12 FR or SO.
That this young team is getting anywhere is a credit to Keith Dambrot, who may well prove that he can coach people who didn't shower with LeBron James.
Again, Akron is certainly not bullet proof. They did lose at home to Buffalo. At the same time, they are the type of team which has been trouble for us in the past, so it represents a nice challenge for us.
Other stats on site courtesy of statsheet.com.
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