This is a much improved team and a good team. In common opponent land, they almost beat Minnesota, beat Miami and smoked EMU (hello? Is this thing on?) They also blew out Toledo, and played Tennessee very tough in Knoxville.
What is their best result this season?
Blowing out Toledo the week after they beat Michigan.
What is their worst result this season?
I'm going to say the loss to WMU, only because its in the league and it was close, but in reality there aren't really any blemishes for them.
What is the turnover margin? Any outliers throwing off the numbers?
They are +7, leading the MAC (befitting a team exceeding expectations.) That's 14 incoming against 7 outgoing. They "take care of the ball."
What is the injury situation
This from the DeKalb Daily Chronicle:
Trouble at linebacker....Linebacker John Tranchitella (elbow injury) will go through practice this week but his practice will be non-contact until at least Wednesday.
Linebacker Cory Hanson (ankle) is out.
Linebacker Zach Larsen has a high ankle sprain and is questionable.
Also, linebacker Tim McCarthy could also be limited on Saturday.
Cornerback Bradley Pruitt has a severe ankle sprain and is out for Saturday’s game.
Quarterbacks Dan Nicholson (shoulder) and DeMarcus Grady (ankle) may be available for back up duty.
Also, fullback Kyle Skarb, who injured a foot against the Rockets, is questionable. This may require a TE to play FB.
Offense:
How is their QB play?
Their QB is Chandler Harnish, a freshmen, who returned from an injury for the Rocketwhupping. His efficiency of 176.4 is very good. He is a high % passer. However, NIU has the fewest pass attempts in the MAC, by far.
What is their yard per play?
Its 5.7 yards per play, which is pretty darn good. (Tied for 3rd in the conference).
Can they run the ball?
Northern can ALWAYS run the ball, and at 4.6 yards per carry is tied for third in the MAC. If we let them double their season average, as we did with Miami, then it will be one for the record books.
Do they pass the ball.
They don't pass much, but when they do, it works. They are 4th in the MAC in Pass Efficiency, despite their low attempts. They complete 60%, have a strong (10/3) TD/INT ratio, and the second highest yards per attempt in the league, (7.4, more than a yard better than BG's). This is all stuff the efficiency formula rewards.
The Huskies have typically run the ball and then went over the top to score (like an old school Big 10 team), and that appears to be the way it still works.
Are they high efficiency or big play?
Grind it out, with big passing plays over the top.
Do they convert on 3rd Down.
They are excellent. 44.9% is second in the MAC. When you can reliably run the ball, you end up with lots of third and shorts.
Do they score in the red zone?
They are average in the red zone, with 4.2 points per trip. Ball State is 4.8, for reference.
Do they protect the quarterback?
As you would expect, they have been sacked only 11 times, fourth in the conference.
Defense:
Topline: Scoring and yards per play.
No way to sugercoat this. NIU appears to be a dominant defensive team. They held the Volunteers to 13 in Knoxville, have a shut out in the conference, held Toledo to 7 points, etc. They are top in the MAC in scoring defensive and yardage allowed. 4.6 yards per play allowed is the best in the MAC by .4 yards per play!
Do they defend the run effectively?
They allow 4.5 yards per carry, and only three teams in the conference are below that.
Can they be passed on?
They are 2nd in the MAC in pass defense efficiency. Their ratio is 6/6, and while they give up 60% completions, their yards/attempt (5.5) is by far the lowest in the MAC.
Do they get off the field on 3rd down?
They are very strong on third down, leading the conference allowing only 31% conversion.
Do they defend in the red zone?
Again, they are deadly defending inside their own 20. First of all, they have allowed only 13 red zone trips all season! Ball State is next at 20. Its less than two a game and an amazing stat. But it gets better. They have 5 stops in those 13 attempts, the best % in the conference. Finally, of the 8 scores, only 5 were TDs.
This is a very solid defensive team.
Do they pressure the QB?
They are tied for third in the MAC with 13 sacks.
Special Teams:
Punting?
NIU is sixth in the MAC in net punting. 7 of their 23 punts have been inside the 20.
Punt Return?
They are 7th in the MAC in punt returns.
Placekicking?
They are 11/16 in FGs, which is 5th in the MAC. The long is 49 yards.
Kickoff?
Kick coverage is excellent. They are second in the MAC, and have a stunning 11 touchbacks.
Kickoff Return?
They are 12th in kickoff returns, so that's not a strong point. (Black humor: let's hope we kick off more than once).
Miscellaneous: Overall atmospherics and intangibles.
A few things:
- NIU has a new coach, and is clearly resurgent, and there is talent leftover from the previous administration.
- NIU is a very, very hard place to play.
- NIU does have their big West division games coming up. They may not be focused on us as closely as they should.
- Given how our season and how college football has done this year, you almost expect to win when you shouldn't.
- But, having said that, I consider us to be facing a tall mountain Saturday.
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