GMAC preview
Its not hard to see how this game is going to boil down. This is a good Memphis team, and we probably match up as poorly on defense as we have any team since Oklahoma. Luckily, they opposite is true as well...let's look.
When Memphis has the ball
DeAngelo Williams, is the best RB we have faced since the OK game. He averaged 166 yards per game--which was more than 40 more than the second best in that league. Its the second in the nation. Its better than 5 CUSA teams. Its about what BG rushed for in each game. It breaks down to 6.2 yards per carry...and 21 TD's.
This kid is the real deal. This could well be his last game as a Tiger, so he'll be looking at scoring on a big stage. Given the problems our defense had with MAC runners, we could be in trouble.
You know, on bulk stats, our run D isn't too bad. 3.7 yards per carry. But, check out these numbers:
Wolfe (NIU) 202 Yards
Seymour (CMU) 155 yards
Givens (BSU) 123 yards
McDougle (UT) 112 yards
In other words, decent runners gained on us this year. Anthony Sherell is the only big-time RB we shut down this year. we have some time to prepare for him, but I really fear that he will eat us alive running the ball.
He runs behind an all-conference lineman (Frederic the center). Four of the five starters are seniors, so this is a seasoned bunch.
They are not one-dimensional, however. Danny Wimprine, their QB, is also a senior and second-team All-CUSA. They were fouth in the conference in passing O, and have a stud receiver in senior Tavares Gideon.
This team reminds me a lot of NIU. Hot TB, good QB who can go over the top if 8 get into the box, and a big receiver like Shelton. And a seasoned, big O-Line.
What are our chances? Well, there are a couple.
Maybe the UT debacle has finally shocked the Falcons into realizing that stopping the run has to become a priority, and we'll figure out how to assemble a run D and get the job done. This is doubtful, though I am not sure why.
The second is to get some turnovers. Memphis turned the ball over 18 times this season. If Keon can get a pick or a strip, and we can get up a couple scores, maybe we got a shot to hold these guys off.
One thing that won't happen. Falcon fans are talking about "getting a lead and taking Memphis out of their game plan." Note--review Toledo game films.
When BG Has The Ball
Memphis was second to last in the CUSA in pass defense. They were eighth in sacks. They were middle of the pack in most other defensive passing categories. They do defend the run well--third in their conference.
As good as their offense is, they defense is average in a conference I believe is about as good as the MAC. We should be able to move the ball on Memphis.
They had a junior All-CUSA back (Wesley Smith), as well as a lineman (Means) and LB on the second team (Enzor).
If the offense takes a powder like it did against Toledo (don't give me that crap about how many TDs were scored--I'm not talking garbage TDs), we will lose for sure. Our offense needs to hit on all cylinders, and the D needs to either surprise us, or get some turnovers for us to win.
Final note: We've got to hit in the red zone for 6.
Special Teams
Memphis has an outstanding kicker, Stephen Gostokowski. He was 20/24 on FG's, so if they need a late FG, we're in trouble. Their punting and KO returns were at the bottom of their conference, which might matter more in a field position game--which is not what anyone anticipates.
I don't predict scores or winners. I like the Falcons chances. I'll be pleasantly surprised if the D can hold Memphis. It should be a BG win in a shoot-out, but I wouldn't be surprised or embarassed if we lost to this team.
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